Safety Methodology
How we calculate and present safety scores to help you travel informed.
Each destination receives an overall safety score from 0 to 10, calculated as a weighted average of four component scores:
30%
Crime Safety
Violent and property crime rates in and around tourist areas
20%
Terrorism Risk
Terrorism incidents, threat levels, and extremist activity assessments
25%
Political Stability
Government travel advisories, civil unrest risk, and institutional stability
25%
Health & Safety
Healthcare infrastructure, emergency services, and environmental hazards
Excellent (9.0 – 10.0)
Exceptionally safe with minimal risk for travelers
Good (7.0 – 8.9)
Low risk for travelers with standard precautions
Moderate (5.0 – 6.9)
Exercise increased caution, stay aware of surroundings
Elevated Risk (3.0 – 4.9)
Significant risks present; consult advisories before traveling
High Risk (0.0 – 2.9)
Reconsider travel; consult official advisories
Crime Safety (30%)
Crime safety is assessed using a combination of the Numbeo Crime Index and homicide rate data, weighted 60/40 respectively. The Numbeo Crime Index (0-100) is inverted and normalized to a 0-10 scale, while homicide rates per 100,000 population are scored on a tiered scale. This dual approach captures both perceptual crime levels and hard statistical data for violent crime.
Terrorism Risk (20%)
Terrorism risk is evaluated using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) incident count over a 5-year rolling window combined with current threat level assessments, weighted 30/70. Threat levels range from “none” (10/10) to “severe” (0/10). This factor was separated from general crime because terrorism has a distinct risk profile — low probability but high impact — that affects traveler perception and insurance requirements differently.
Political Stability (25%)
Political stability uses the World Bank Governance Index (range: -2.5 to 2.5, normalized to 0-10) averaged with the Economist Democracy Index (0-10). This provides a balanced view combining institutional governance quality with democratic freedoms and civil liberties that affect traveler experience.
Health & Safety (25%)
Health and safety combines three sub-indicators: healthcare quality (50% weight, based on Healthcare Access and Quality Index), disease risk (30% weight, from CDC/WHO risk classifications), and air quality (20% weight, EPA AQI data). This captures both the likelihood of health incidents and the capacity to respond to them.
The weight distribution was determined through research into traveler safety priorities, competitive analysis of existing safety indices, and team evaluation:
- Crime (30%): Weighted highest because it is the most immediate, frequent, and personally relevant safety concern for travelers. Petty theft, mugging, and scams affect more tourists than any other category.
- Terrorism (20%): Separated from general crime because it represents a distinct risk profile — low frequency but extreme impact. At 20%, it influences scores meaningfully without dominating destinations that are otherwise safe.
- Political Stability (25%): Reflects how government stability, civil unrest, and institutional quality affect day-to-day traveler safety. Unstable political environments can rapidly change safety conditions.
- Health & Safety (25%): Equally weighted with political stability because healthcare access and environmental conditions directly impact traveler wellbeing, especially for longer stays and older travelers.
Each safety score includes a confidence indicator showing how reliable the assessment is based on available data:
High Confidence
3 or more independent data sources, recent data (within 6 months), verified against multiple indicators
Medium Confidence
2 data sources, or data that may be 6-12 months old, generally reliable but with some gaps
Low Confidence
Single data source, or data older than 12 months, limited coverage for the area
Trend indicators show how a destination's safety situation is changing over time, based on period-over-period comparison of available data:
Improving
Safety metrics trending upward
Stable
No significant change detected
Declining
Safety metrics trending downward
Important Disclaimer
Safety scores are provided for informational purposes only and should not be the sole factor in travel decisions. Conditions can change rapidly. Always check current travel advisories from your government before traveling. Destiora is not responsible for any incidents that may occur. Local conditions within a destination can vary significantly by neighborhood and time of day.